Pot equity and pot odds
The chart tells you what to open. Once there is a bet in front of you after the flop, two numbers decide whether a call makes money: how often your hand wins, and what price the pot is offering. Both are quick to estimate at the table.
Equity
Equity is the share of the pot your hand wins on average if every remaining card came out. Count your outs, the unseen cards that turn your hand into the best one, then use the rule of two and four. On the flop, multiply outs by four for your chance by the river. On the turn, multiply by two.
Counting outs
The easiest way is to memorize the handful of draws that come up constantly, then adjust from there.
| Draw | Outs |
|---|---|
| Flush draw | 9 |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 |
| Gutshot | 4 |
| Two overcards, either pair beats top pair | 6 |
| One overcard | 3 |
| Pocket pair to a set | 2 |
| Flush draw and open-ender | 15 |
| Flush draw and gutshot | 12 |
| Flush draw and a pair, to two pair or trips | 14 (9 + 5) |
When it is not a stock draw, ask which specific cards make you the best hand and count them by rank. Say them in your head, "any nine, any four, plus the two remaining kings", and add. A card that completes both a flush and a straight counts once.
Discount outs that also help the villain. On a flush draw with a paired board, knock a couple off, since a flush can lose to a full house. Rough rule: dirty outs count as half.
Skip outs that only make a hand the villain still beats. Bottom pair improving to two pair against a flopped set is not an out.
Sanity anchors for the times-four math on the flop: 4 outs about 17%, 8 outs about 32%, 9 outs about 35%, 15 outs about 54%. Times four overshoots above twelve outs, so cap those around 50 to 55%.
The common draws
Each example shows your hand, the flop, and every card that completes the draw.
Gutshot straight draw
4 outs · flop 16% · turn 8%
You need one exact rank in the middle of the straight. Four cards make it.
Two overcards
6 outs · flop 24% · turn 12%
Any ace or king gives you top pair. Six cards, and only outs if a pair would be the best hand.
Open-ended straight draw
8 outs · flop 32% · turn 16%
Four cards in a row, open at both ends. Any jack or any six completes it. Eight cards.
Flush draw
9 outs · flop 36% · turn 18%
Four of a suit with two to come. Thirteen hearts minus the four you can see leaves nine.
Flush draw and open-ender
15 outs · flop 54% · turn 30%
Nine hearts plus the three jacks and three sixes that are not hearts. Fifteen cards, and a favorite against one pair.
If an out also improves the other player, count it as half. With more than eight outs on the flop, subtract the extra outs from the rule-of-four result: fifteen outs is 60 minus 7, about 53%.
Pot odds
Pot odds are the equity you need for a call to break even. Divide the bet by the pot after both of you have put the bet in.
required equity = bet ÷ (pot + bet + bet)
Villain bets 5 bb into a 10 bb pot. You need 5 ÷ (10 + 5 + 5) = 25%. A flush draw on the flop has about 36%, so calling makes money. If the bet were 15 bb into the same pot, you would need 15 ÷ 40 = 37.5%, and the same draw is a fold.
Do it in your head
- Count outs, then times four or times two. Flop, times four. Turn, times two.
- Size the bet against the pot, not in chips. Half pot, full pot, and so on. The required equity depends only on that fraction, so memorize five numbers.
- Compare. Equity above the number, call. Below it, fold.
The five numbers to memorize
| Bet | You need | Rule of thumb |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter pot | 17% | a gutshot on the flop calls |
| Half pot | 25% | an open-ender or flush draw on the flop calls |
| Two-thirds pot | 29% | eight outs on the flop is a close call |
| Full pot | 33% | a flush draw on the flop still calls, a straight draw does not |
| Twice the pot | 40% | only combo draws and made hands continue |
On the turn every draw is worth half as much, so the same flush draw at 18% only calls a quarter-pot bet.
Put them together
Call when your equity is higher than the required equity. Fold when it is lower. Everything else, from implied odds to fold equity, adjusts these two numbers, so get them automatic first.
The trainer grades you on real boards and villain ranges. The hand tracker logs the hands you actually play, one thumb between deals, and shows your bet sizes as pot fractions and what villains show up with at showdown.